Pastika triumph predictable, say experts

By. Dicky Christanto , The Jakarta Post | Fri, 07/11/2008 10:12 AM | Bali

Pastika's lead in early vote counting from Wednesday's gubernatorial election is predictable as he was supported by the largest political party on the island, experts here said.

Dasi Astawa of the Bali Development Empowerment Institution said I Made Mangku Pastika and his running mate, AA Ngurah Puspayoga, backed by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), were leading in early results thanks to the party's solid support and the local patron-client culture.

"Balinese are known to honor their leaders and are willing to give their unquestionable loyalty to them," Dasi said.

"Therefore it is not difficult for the PDI-P to influence most people since party members currently hold important positions either as regents or local legislators," he told The Jakarta Post on Thursday.

Besides, he said, Pastika and his running mate are generally viewed in a favorable light by Balinese.

He said that Pastika, for example, was well known for his important role in investigating the 2002 Bali bombing.

"People consider him to have done a great service in restoring security. This is the emotional factor that other candidates don't have," Dasi said, adding that this was a more important factor than the candidates' promises and policies.

As of Thursday at noon, Pastika and Puspayoga led the vote count with more than 55 percent of counted votes, or over 1 million votes.

Nyoman Subandha of the National Education University said Pastika and Puspayoga scored clear victories in at least six regencies where the PDI-P and the candidates themselves have a strong base.

According to at least three quick count surveys by the Indonesia Survey Circle, Indonesia Survey Foundation and the General Elections Commission, Pastika and Puspayoga collected more than 50 percent of the vote in the regencies of Buleleng, Denpasar, Bangli, Klungkung, Badung and Tabanan.

In Gianyar and Karangasem regencies, the Golkar Party candidates Cokorda Budi Suryawan and I Nyoman Gede Suweta received more than 50 percent of the vote.

In Jembrana regency, the current regent, I Gede Winasa, and his running mate Gusti Alit Putera got more than 50 percent of votes.

Subandha said even though Pastika and Puspayoga appear to have won the elections, they would have to move quickly to address the many substantial problems facing the resort island. He said these include proving jobs, better educational and healthcare.

Preliminary results show that the pair "has managed to gain the majority's trust through a relatively transparent election. So the pair deserves our support", Subandha said.

"But if people see them only playing around with their power, they will have to be on the alert as the people will use their own ways to show their frustration. And it could be fatal both for their term and the PDI-P, as the sole political party backing them," he said.